ಚರ್ಚೆಪುಟ:೨೦೧೪ ಭಾರತದ ಸಾರ್ವತ್ರಿಕ ಲೋಕಸಭಾ ಚುನಾವಣೆ ಮತ್ತು ಫಲಿತಾಂಶ

ಫಲಿತಾಂಶ ೨೦೧೪

• 1NDA :-BJP283// TDP 16//SHS 19 /SAD 4/MNS 0/AINRC 1/Apna Dal 2/DMDK/ HJC (BL)/ LJP6/ MDMK/ NPF1/ NPP1/ PMK1/ RLSP3
• 2)INC/43/NCP5/RJD/4/NC0/IUML2/JMM2/KCM0/RLD0/RSP1/TOTAL=58
• 3) :-AITS34/AIDMK36/BSP0/SP5/DMK0/AGP0/AIFB0/AIDF3AJSU0/BDF0/BJD 20/BJDI-1/CPI0/CPIM9/CPIMLL0/GGP0/GOA0/ GSP0/HSP0/IND3INLD2/JVMP0/MDPF0/
• 4) BDF/ BJD20/BMP0/CPI0/CPL(M)9/CPI-ML 0/GGP0/GOA0/GSP0HSP0/OND3/INLD2/IPFT0/JDS3/JDU2/JKPC0/JVMP0/MDPF0/MDPF0/OTHERS3/PDP3/PPA0/SDF1/SKM0/SP(I)0/TRS12/UDP0/UKD0/YSRCo.Party9
• 5)AAP-4

೧೩-೫-೨೦೧೪ಸುದ್ದಿ ಟೈ.ಆಫ್ ಇಂ.

NEW DELHI: The 2014 Lok Sabha election, which finally drew to a close on Monday, has earned the distinction of recording the highest voter turnout ever at 66.4%. This surpasses the 64% polling witnessed in the 1984 polls, held in extraordinary circumstances following the assassination of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, and makes the 58.2% turnout of 2009 pale in comparison.

This general election cost the government Rs 3,426 crore, which is 131% more than the Rs 1,483 crore spent on the 2009 polls. Apart from inflation, which has soared over the last five years, the Election Commission on Monday attributed the surge in poll costs to its rising spend on new measures including the voter awareness initiative titled Systematic Voter Education and Electoral Participation (SVEEP).

೨೦೧೪ ಮುನ್ನೋಟ

2014 Polls Survey: Cong Stares at Poor Show in 8 Big States Bangalore, July 27: The Congress is in a real danger of facing a humiliation in the next Lok Sabha elections. According to a joint poll survey of CNN-IBN and The Hindu, the Congress is set to face serious adverses in eight of the ten most crucial states in the country in terms of electoral results.

In West Bengal, which has 42 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress is expected to get 5-9 seats, which is much mess than the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Left Front, which are expected to get 23-27 and 7-11 seats. In 2009, the TMC and Congress alliance had won 26 seats. CNN &IBN&The Hindu15-9-2013 2014 123/2014

In Bihar, the Congress is set to do even worse. As against the JD(U) projected seat between 15-19 seats (out of 40 seats), the Congress is expected to get 0-4 seats. The BJP and RJD will have a close fight for the second spot.

The only gain for the Congress is set to be Karnataka where it came to power in May this year. Out of 28 Lok Sabha seats, the party is expected to bag 18-22 while the BJP, which faced a massive defeat in the assembly polls this year, could win just 2-6 seats. The JD(S) is also likely to get 2-6 seats.

Andhra Pradesh perhaps present the biggest challenge to the Congress. The party had done good in this state in 2009 (it had won 33 out of 42 seats) but the poll survey says that its tally could come down drastically to just 11-15. The YSR Congress could win 11-15 seats, TDP 6-10 seats while the TRS 5-9 seats. Whether Telangana will be formed or not or whether it can change the party's fate is for time to tell.

In Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is set to be the runaway winner with 16-20 seats (out of 39) while the DMK is expected to get 8-12 seats. The Congress's tally is likely to be 1-5 seats.

The Congress is set to face a landslide in Gujarat where Narendra Modi's BJP is expected to win 20-24 of the 26 seats. The party, in a big decline from what it was in 2009, is likely to get between two to six seats.

In the UP, electorally the most crucial state in India with 80 seats, the Congress will get just 11-15 seats, predicted the poll. In the 2009 elections, the party got 21 seats. The BJP is expected to get between 29-33 seats, which will be a big jump from its previous tally of 10. The ruling Samajwadi Party is likely to get between 17-21 seats while the Bahujan Samaj Party is predicted to win 14-18 seats.

The Congress is also set to face a drubbing in Madhya Pradesh, where it is expected to win just 2-6 seats out of 29. Opposition BJP is likely to finish with 21-25 seats. In Rajasthan, the poll predicts 10-14 seats for both the national parties, although the figure suggests a big decline for the Congress. In 2009, it had won 20 out of 25 seats in the state as against the BJP's four.

The results in Maharashtra are not likely to change much. The Congress and its allies are expected to win 23-27 seats (out of 48) while the BJP and its allies are likely to get 18-22 seats. The MNS could be a decisive factor in the state, the poll said.

The above mentioned states have 399 Lok Sabha seats in total. In 2009, the Congress and its allies got 164 out of those 399 seats. In the next general polls, their tally is expected to touch 123 at the most (the party is no more in alliance with the TMC and DMK) in those states

೧೫-೩-೨೦೧೪

NDA to win 229 seats, UPA 129: Opinion poll

TNN | Mar 15, 2014, 03.12 AM IST;The UPA, on the other hand, is likely to suffer huge losses, ending up with just 129 seats with the Congress getting 106 of those, 100 less than it did in 2009. That's the prediction of the NDTV poll conducted by Hansa Research released on Friday.

In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the opinion poll predicted that the BJP would win 40 of the 80 seats, leaving BSP, SP and the Congress-RLD combine splitting the remaining 40 seats more or less equally.

ಮುನ್ನೋಟ ೧೫-೩-೨೦೧೪

NDTV- FORECAST-2014

ಲೋಕಸಭೆ ಸ್ಥಾನ ೫೪೩ ; ಬಹುಮತ ೨೭೨

NDA >ಬಿಜೆಪಿ೧೯೫+ಎಸ್.ಎಸ್..೧೩+ಟಿಡಿಪಿ೯+ಎಸ್.ಎ,ಡಿ.೪ಎಲ್.ಜೆ.ಪಿ೩+ಆರ್.ಎಲ್.ಎಸ.ಪಿ.೧+ಎಹ.ಜೆ.ಸಿ.೧+ಎನ್.ಪಿಎಫ್೧+ಇತರೆ೨=೨೨೯(229) + ಇತರೆ ಪಕ್ಷಗಳು > ೫೨ =೨೮೧

ಇತರೆ ಪಕ್ಷಗಳು; ಜೆ ಎಮ್.ಎಮ್.೨ +ಸ್ವತಂತ್ರ ೨+ಎಮ್.ಎನ್.ಎಸ. ೨+ ಎಸ್ಡಿಎಫ್.೧ + ಇತರೆ ೮ +ಟಿಆರ್ ಎಸ್ ೧೧ + ಎ.ಐ.ಎ.ಡಿಎಂ.ಕೆ ೨೭ ಬಣದಿಂದ..೫೨=..ಒಟ್ಟು ೨೮೧ ೫೨=೨೮೧ ;

ಯು.ಪಿ.ಎ. ಕಾಂ >೧೦೬+ಆರ.ಜಡಿ ೮+ಎನ.ಸಿ.ಪಿ.೫ ;ಆರ್.ಎಲ್.ಡಿ.೩ +ಜಕೆಎನ.ಸಿ.೩ +ಎಯುಡಿಎಪ್ ೧+ಇತರೆ ೩ =೧೨೯ ;129seats;

೩ನೇ ಬಣ ಎಡ ೧೮ +ಬಿಜೆಡಿ೪೭ +ಎಸ್.ಪಿ. ೧೩ + ಜೆಡಿಯು. ೫ + ಜೆ.ಡಿ.ಎಸ್ ೨ +=೫೫ ;;

೪ನೇ ಬಣ ಟಿಎಮ್.ಸಿ ,೩೨+ಬಿಎಸ್.ಪಿ ೧೬ + ವೈ.ಎಸ್.ಆರ್.೧೫ . +ಡಿ.ಎಮ್.ಕೆ ೧೦ +ಆಪ್=ಎಎಪಿ ೪ +ಎಮ್.ಐ.ಎಮ್.೧ =೭೮

ಮುನ್ನೋಟ ೧೪-೪-೨೦೧೪

• Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.14 April 2014
• NDTV- Hansa Research
• Sample size UPA NDA TF OTHERS
• Opinion polls in India--24,000[22] 111 (INC 92) 275 (BJP 226) 157
• AP India Today-Cicero 1358 4 - 6 17 - 21 7 - 11 6 - 10
• AR-PR Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1 * *ASM NDTV- Hansa Research[27]
• 46,571 12 1 0 0
• BHR 24,000 12 24 4 0
• CHIGD 24,000 3 8
• GOA Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 1
• GUJ NDTV- Hansa Research
• 24,000 4 22 0
• HIMPRS 24,000 2 6 2 0
• J&K Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 2 2 1
• JRKND NDTV- Hansa Researc -24,000 1 12 1 0 0
• KRNTAK NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 14 12 2 JDS-0
• KERALA NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 0 12 UDF-8
• MP NDTV- Hansa Research24,000 3 26 0 0
• MHRSTR NDTV- Hansa Research24,000 9 37 2
• MNPR Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0 1
• MGHLY Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 NPP-1
• MIZO imes Now-India TV-CVoter
• 14,000 1 0
• NGA LD Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 0
• ODISA NDTV- Hansa Research24,000 1 7 BJD-13 0
• PJB NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 6 7-> +SAD
• RJSTN NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 3 21 1
• SIKIM Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 0 SDF-1
• TMLNDU ia Today-Cicero1 .35 .8 04 - 6(In alliance) AIADMK

20 - 24 9 - 13 (In alliance) 0 - 2

• TRIPURA imes Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 0 2
• UP NDTV- Hansa Research 24,000 5 51 SP-14 BSP-10 0

• UKAND Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 0 5
• WBGL Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 4 0 AITC-30 8 0
• DEHLI NDTV- Hansa Research24,000 0 6 1

Times Now-India TV-CVoter 14,000 1 3 1 1

• The eight largest metropolises in India are considered important because they constitute 31 seats, larger than some regions altogether. In the previous election, the INC-led UPA won 24 of these seats, but the UPA is trailing in these areas.[49] A NDTV opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh indicated that the BJP would win its largest share of seats in the region by winning 40 of the 80 seats. BSP would get 15 seats, SP would get 13 seats, INC-RLD will get 12 seats, amongst its losses will Ajit Singh. The poll also asked those in Gujarat if Modi should run from U.P., of which 67% responded negatively, while those in U.P. said by 62% that they would like to see him run from there

ಬಹುಮತ ಶೇಕಡಾವಾರು

• ಅತಿ ಕಡಿಮೆ ಮತ ಗಳಿಕೆ, ಆದರೂ ಬಹುಮತ ಪಡೆದ ಬಿಜೆಪಿ
• ಏಜೆನ್ಸೀಸ್ | May 19, 2014, 01.06PM IST
• ವಿಜಯ ಕರ್ನಾಟಕ
• ಹೊಸದಿಲ್ಲಿ: 16ನೇ ಲೋಕಸಭೆಯಲ್ಲಿ ಬಿಜೆಪಿ ತನ್ನ ಸ್ವಂತ ಬಲದಲ್ಲೇ ಬಹುಮತ ಗೆದ್ದುಕೊಂಡಿದೆ ಎಂಬುದು ನಿಜವಾಗಿದ್ದರೂ, ಕೇವಲ ಶೇ.31 ಮತ ಗಳಿಕೆಯೊಂದಿಗೆ ಯಾವುದೇ ಪಕ್ಷವೂ ಇದುವರೆಗೆ ಸ್ವಂತ ಬಲದಲ್ಲಿ ಅಧಿಕಾರ ಸ್ಥಾಪಿಸಿದ ಉದಾಹರಣೆಗಳಿಲ್ಲ.
• ಸರಳವಾಗಿ ಹೇಳುವುದಾದರೆ, 10ರಲ್ಲಿ 4ಕ್ಕಿಂತ ಕಡಿಮೆ ಮತಗಳು ಎನ್‌ಡಿಎ ಪರವಾಗಿ ಬಿದ್ದಿವೆ ಮತ್ತು ಮೂರಲ್ಲಿ ಒಬ್ಬರು ತಮ್ಮನ್ನು ಪ್ರತಿನಿಧಿಸಲು ಬಿಜೆಪಿಯನ್ನೇ ಆಯ್ದುಕೊಂಡಿಲ್ಲವೆಂದಾಗುತ್ತದೆ. ಕಾಂಗ್ರೆಸ್ ಮತ್ತು ಅದರ ಮಿತ್ರ ಪಕ್ಷಗಳನ್ನು ಆಯ್ದುಕೊಂಡಿರುವವರ ಸಂಖ್ಯೆ ಇನ್ನೂ ಕಡಿಮೆ, ಅಂದರೆ ಐವರಲ್ಲಿ ಒಬ್ಬರಿಗಿಂತ ಕಡಿಮೆ ಮತ್ತು ಯುಪಿಎಗೆ ದೊರೆತಿರುವ ನಾಲ್ಕರಲ್ಲಿ ಒಂದರಷ್ಟು ಮತಗಳಿಗಿಂತಲೂ ಕಡಿಮೆ. (ಕಾಂಗ್ರೆಸ್‌ಗೆ ಶೇ.19.3 ಮತಗಳು ದೊರೆತಿದ್ದು, ಇದು 2009ರಲ್ಲಿ ಬಿಜೆಪಿ ಗಳಿಸಿದ ಶೇ.18.5ಕ್ಕಿಂತ ಕಡಿಮೆ). ಕಾಂಗ್ರೆಸ್‌ನ ದುರದೃಷ್ಟದಿಂದ ಅದಕ್ಕೆ ದೊರೆತ ಶೇ.19.3 ಮತಗಳು ಕೇವಲ 44 ಸ್ಥಾನಗಳನ್ನು ದೊರಕಿಸಿಕೊಟ್ಟಿದ್ದರೆ, ಕಳೆದ ಬಾರಿ ಬಿಜೆಪಿಗೆ ದೊರೆತಿದ್ದ ಶೇ.18.5 ಮತ ಗಳಿಕೆ ಪ್ರಮಾಣದಲ್ಲಿ 116 ಸ್ಥಾನಗಳು ದೊರಕಿದ್ದವು.

• ಆದರೆ, ಎನ್‌ಡಿಎ ಮಿತ್ರಕೂಟಕ್ಕೆ ದೊರೆತ ಶೇ.38.5 ಮತಗಳು, ಅಧಿಕಾರಕ್ಕೇರಿದ ಮೈತ್ರಿಕೂಟವೊಂದರ ಕನಿಷ್ಠ ಮತ ಗಳಿಕೆಯೇನಲ್ಲ. ಯುಪಿಎ-1ರ ಮಿತ್ರ ಪಕ್ಷಗಳ ಒಟ್ಟಾರೆ ಮತ ಗಳಿಕೆ ಪ್ರಮಾಣ ಶೇ.35.9. ಅಂತೆಯೇ 1991ರಲ್ಲಿ ಪಿ.ವಿ.ನರಸಿಂಹರಾವ್ ಅವರು ಅಲ್ಪಮತದ ಸರಕಾರ ನಡೆಸಿದ್ದಾಗ ಕಾಂಗ್ರೆಸ್‌ಗೆ ದೊರೆತ ಮತಗಳಿಕೆ ಶೇ.38.2.